Knicks Pulse Check Part VI: Comparison is the Thief of Joy

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The New York Knicks have crossed the 60-game mark at 20 games over .500, with a record of 40-20. Only 2.5 games behind the Boston Celtics for second place in the Eastern Conference, the orange and blue have a clear target in mind, and have settled some turbulent winds post-All-Star break.

Finishing this season with at least 50 wins would be only the third time the Knicks accomplished that feat in the last 25 years.

And although not all of the news is good news; yes, the Knicks are still 0-7 against the top teams in the NBA, KAT is struggling, and, for some reason, the Knicks continue to start games as if they spent the majority of the previous evening partying on Bourbon street; the overall sense of this team should be positive.

Strolling down advanced analytics lane, the Knicks currently rank fourth in offensive rating (down two-spots from our previous check-in), 19th in defensive rating (down six spots), and sixth in net-rating (one spot below).

The orange and blue are also top five in total shooting percentage (third) and effective field goal percentage (fourth). On the flip side, the Knicks rank 24th in the league in both rebounds per game and free-throw attempts per game.

The latter of those analytics, plus the team’s ineptitude versus the top-tier of the NBA have sparked chatter regarding a comparison between this year’s team and last year’s squad, which I found most interesting (more on that later).

KAT gone cold?

Karl-Anthony Towns has made this team better. While I’m a strong believer in that statement, it’s been extremely difficult watching the majority of his performances (especially on the defensive end) since he injured his thumb in January. It’s possible some of these performances were also impacted by a knee injury sustained in February. That being said, KAT’s defensive positioning and activity on the boards have all declined.

In the first three months of the season, KAT averaged 13 rebounds a game. The eye test would’ve told you that KAT’s previous reputation as a defensive sieve, although earned, was not fully on display during his early days in New York. But in February, KAT’s rebounds per game dropped to 11.6. And although KAT ranks second in contested rebounds per game, and third in box outs, he routinely looks lost in drop coverage, and takes poor angles when guarding opposing players driving to the hoop.

On the offensive end, prior to his thumb injury, KAT was averaging 25.4 points per game, while shooting 55 percent from the field and 44.9 percent from the three-point line. Since January 15th, KAT is averaging 22.3 points per game, shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from the three-point line.

KAT’s offense is a make-or-break factor for this team, and head coach Tom Thibodeau has to figure out a way to manufacture more shots for the big man. Whether it’s putting him in more pick-and-roll options with Jalen Brunson, or creating more mismatch opportunities when he’s in the post, the Knicks made this trade with the goal of catching the Celtics, and he has to be playing at his best if the Knicks are to going to make that happen.

23-24 vs 24-25

Somewhere along the lines of losses against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Celtics, online discussion regarding a comparison between the 2023-2024 Knicks with this year’s iteration of the orange and blue began to percolate. Last year’s Knicks at the 60-game mark were 35-25, ranked 11th in offensive rating, 10th in defensive rating, and 9th in net rating. That team also ranked top five in both overall rebounds per game (fifth) and offensive rebounds per game (first).

Truth be told, the Knicks traded part of an identity centered around rim protection and elite rebounding for offensive efficiency when they traded Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle for Towns. Fans, including myself, fell in love with last year’s gritty team that grinded opposing offenses from a two-by-four to a mere tooth pick over the course of 48 minutes. But some of the facts in this comparison may challenge fan’s feelings and ideas over which team was actually “better.”

You will often hear some fans say that last year’s squad had more “heart.” Although this is damn near impossible to quantify, it’s worth noting that the 2024-2025 Knicks are 16-7, with a win percentage of 69.6 in the “clutch” per NBAstats.com. Last year’s team was 17-16 with a clutch win percentage of 51.5.

Fans will also talk about this team’s poor record against top teams (0-7). But last year’s team wasn’t much better, recording just two wins in eight games versus the Milwaukee Bucks, Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets prior to game #60.

I also think it’s unfair to assume one more year with last year’s roster, even if healthy, would have been performed better than this year’s team. Julius Randle would have been in the last year of his contract, and it’s fair to wonder if the stalled contract negotiations between the Knicks and his camp over the summer would have affected his game.

It’s also not an apples-to-apples comparison using last year’s top teams in the East/West versus this year’s top teams. The Celtics have almost another year, with essentially the same core, after winning a championship, and both the Thunder and Cavs are in elite company when it comes to efficiency, both offensively and defensively.

It’s true that the Knicks are nowhere near better than either the Cavs or Celtics right now. But with the return of Mitchell Robinson, and Jalen Brunson playing like an absolute stud, the Knicks are hoping that the best version of this year’s team collides with the playoffs at just the right point to make some noise when it matters most.

ICYMI