It’s been assumed and discussed that the reason the Atlanta Hawks sat all of their starters during their final regular season is that they preferred playing the New York Knicks as opposed to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
Well, they got their wish.
And who could blame the Hawks for feeling confident heading into the postseason? Post All-Star Break, the Hawks finished the season with the third-best record in the league (20-6), 11th in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating, and 4th in net rating.
Prior to playing and losing to the Knicks on April 6th, the Hawks were 18-2 in their last 20, only losing to the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics within that timespan. And while it’s certainly fair to question the strength of schedule during that run, the Hawks did post victories against teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, and the aforementioned Celtics.
This Hawks team has looked very different and much more dangerous without Trae Young. Their long and athletic wing tandem of Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker poses matchup difficulties for even the best of defensive teams. Add in stretch-shooting big Onyeka Okongwu, the veteran presence of CJ McCollum, and you have the reasons why analysts are willing to pick the Hawks to upset the Knicks.
With all that said, let’s take a look at the offensive and defensive sides of the ball for the Atlanta Hawks.
Offense
The Hawks finished the season ranked fifth in overall pace (102.5) and ninth in drives per game (50.5). Clearly, head coach Quinn Snyder’s goal is to create as many possessions as possible while relentlessly putting pressure on the rim. The Hawks also set tons of screens for both NAW and Johnson with their guards, and specifically, Dyson Daniels. Ideally, if the “weakest defender” is on Daniels, who is shooting 18.8 percent from the three-point line, then that puts Brunson on an island with either NAW or Johnson driving straight at him.
Post All-Star break, the Hawks were sixth in three-pointers made per game (14.6) and eighth in three-point percentage (37.4). The red birds literally have seven players—Johnson, Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher, Buddy Hield, NAW, McCollum, and Corey Kispert—shooting over 35 percent from three for the season. To be fair, Hield and Kispert have seen sporadic playing and it’s unclear what role they’ll play in the series. But when they’re on the floor, they can’t be left open.
Throughout this series, the Knicks will probably switch up their defensive coverages - mixing in some drop coverage, switching, and icing pick and rolls. But a steady diet of drop coverage could spell doom for the orange and blue. Veterans guards like McCollum have been torching drop coverage for years, and a really solid shooting big like Okongwu doesn’t need much space to light it up from the three-point line. The Knicks would be smart to switch as much as they can, even if that means KAT or Brunson on an island.
Defense
One thing that stands out about the Hawks defense is that they apply a lot of ball pressure on the perimeter and create turnovers as a result. For the season, the Hawks ranked sixth in the league in steals per game. If the Hawks hedge or put two to the ball, Brunson has to make quick decisions and find open teammates to exploit pockets in the defense.
Overall, I think the captain has done this well. Pre-All-Star Break, Brunson averaged 6.1 assists per game, and post All-Star Break, he averaged 8.3. But there have been games where it feels like two-time All-NBA selection is meandering on the perimeter with the shot clock ticking down.
Apart from turnovers, the Hawks are a great rebounding team, finishing the regular season ranked fifth in rebounds per game (46.3) and sixth in offensive rebounds per game (12.8). This contributed to the Hawks going from being ranked 20th in second-chance points pre-break to ninth post-break.
For this reason alone, Mitchell Robinson will play a major role in determining how long this series goes. If he plays like he did during the Cleveland Cavaliers series back in 2022-2023, where he absolutely dominated both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Knicks could be looking at a gentleman’s sweep.
Final Thoughts
If the Knicks are able to slow the game down, the Hawks will have to prove that they can out-execute the Knicks in the half-court setting. And although the Hawks have good ball-handlers and good shooters, Jalen Brunson’s ability to make tough shots and his experience at navigating multiple defensive coverages during the playoffs is truly invaluable.
I have the Knicks winning in six, but game one is so important, and if the Hawks get one in New York, this could be a long series. Mitchell Robinson is my X factor because his tireless work on the offensive glass will be a major swing factor.
Towards the end of the season the Knicks started to find good offensive chemistry. They also started games the right way, and they played solid defense. If the Knicks continue this trend consistently, they will have all the ingredients set up for a deep playoff run. The journey starts today.
More Playoff Content:
Our writers gather for a Round 1 Roundtable
KFTV Geoff recaps and grades the Knicks’ season in Knicks Pulse Check
KFTV Omar examines what’s at stake for Jalen Brunson’s legacy this year
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