Scouting the Cleveland Cavaliers: Knicks Eastern Conference Finals Preview

The New York Knicks have been off for eight days, and while this time off certainly provided respite and time to heal for some of the Knicks’ most important players, there is concern about rust. On the flip side, the Cleveland Cavaliers come into this series off back-to-back seven-game series with just one day of rest between the second round and the start of the Eastern Conference Finals.

While I would’ve maintained confidence in the Knicks regardless of their ECF opponent, I did tell the squad in the KFTV group chat that I preferred to play the Pistons over the Cavs. The reason is that the Cavs have a ton of offensive versatility, their bigs are playing really well right now, and they have two lead guards who attack relentlessly in isolation.

From the Cavs perspective, even though they just finished off one of the best defensive teams in the league, the Knicks, offensively, have so many more weapons and pose a lot difficult matchups. There’s just no comparing them with either the Detroit Pistons or Toronto Raptors.

Post-trade deadline, after Cleveland acquired James Harden, the Cavs owned the fourth best offensive rating and were ranked fifth in both points per game and free-throw attempts per game. Even at Harden’s age, pairing his ability to get into the paint to create for himself or his teammates with Donovan Mitchell’s similar talents creates major defensive shifts to open up shooters.

The tale of the tape this postseason shows us that the Knicks are ranked higher in most statistical categories including points per game, field goal percentage, three-pointers made, three-point percentage, rebounds per game, and turnovers per game, except for free-throws attempted per game and offensive rebounds per game.

But don’t sleep on the Cavs as they boast the only backcourt left in this tournament that averages twenty-plus points a night each (Donovan Mitchell 25.6 ppg, James Harden 20.1 ppg).

In the clip above, Harden’s ability to take his man off the dribble starts the entire play, which makes the defense shift from side-to-side, ending with him draining an open three. Having a big like Evan Mobley, who is comfortable and fluid with putting the ball on the floor while not settling for the open mid-range jumper, is huge as well.

Amongst players remaining in the playoffs, Harden ranks 7th in points-per-possession in isolation plays (1.02) and third in assists per game (6.2). Despite Mitchell being the Cavs most talented player, it might make sense to put more emphasis on keeping the 17-year vet out of the paint and trying to make him a jump shooter.

Both Mobley and Allen are high IQ players who move well without the ball. Blitzing either Harden or Mitchell just gives both of the Cavs bigs real estate to drive or pass the ball to their shooters. Both players have been playing really well, whether they’ve been positioned at the dunker’s spot, or cutting to the paint.

Overall, I think the Knicks are best suited to switch screens on defense. Even if the Cavs keep switching until they have KAT or Jalen on an island - to me - that’s a more stagnant offense that keeps the ball moving less and also provides less rhythm to their shooters. I think Mikal Bridges should start on Harden, Josh Hart should guard Mitchell, and OG Anunoby should match up with Evan Mobley.

The Cavs are likely to learn from the Philadelphia 76ers not to play drop coverage against Jalen Brunson. I would be shocked if they give him that much room to operate in the mid-range. Additionally, since they’re coming off back-to-back seven-games series, I would also be surprised if you see heavy blitzing from the Cavs to get the ball out of Jalen’s hands. The most likely scenario is that they will look to switch most of the pick-and-roll coverages.

Once again, the versatility of Allen and Mobley comes in handy. Although they’ll struggle against smaller and quicker guards, both bigs can use their length to alter shots. The Pistons targeted both Harden and Mitchell in isolation, and the Knicks will likely engage in some matchup-hunting as well. Despite Harden’s impressive offensive play, his defense, at times, has been putrid. The Knicks will do right to attack him early and often.

Both James Harden and Evan Mobley are ranked within the top ten in total steals this postseason, with 26 and 16, respectively. In order to have a chance against the Knicks, they will need to apply pressure and force turnovers. However, luckily for the Orange and Blue, the Knicks finished the regular season ranked sixth in turnovers per game and currently rank second amongst teams this post season.

The Knicks are in for their toughest battle during these playoffs. The Cavs have improved during every series, and their best players are playing their best basketball at the right time. So many individual narratives have the chance to be re-written. Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Harden, and Mitchell have all had some measure of playoff success, but a trip to the Finals could cement one’s legacy when it’s all said and done.

Even if the Knicks don’t reach the level they played during this most recent seven-game winning streak, it’s hard to imagine a major drop off. There’s just too many weapons on offense, and the Knicks coaching staff has been elite in the playoffs. Truly a combination too difficult to overcome in my opinion.

Knicks in six, for the record.

KFTV Writers share their thoughts on the series.

KFTV Omar makes the case for the new Knicks Golden Age.