Scouting the San Antonio Spurs: Knicks NBA Finals Preview

Locked in doesn’t even begin to describe the average Knicks fan’s mental state right now. And it’s a good thing that description also applies to the New York Knicks’ players and coaching staff, including.

It seems fitting that the final boss standing in the way of the New York Knicks quest for their first NBA championship since 1973 is a Spurs team headlined by one of the league’s bright young talents, Victor Wembanyama.

Rewind the clock back to 1999: it was a second-year player, 22-year-old Tim Duncan, who helped the Spurs dynasty spread its fledgling wings on their way to becoming the gold standard of the NBA over the next decade.

Wemby’s version of the Spurs may not pound the ball into to the post for 48 minutes, but there is no mistaking that San Antonio DNA started by Gregg Popovich, which includes ball movement and a stout defense. As a result, it’s no surprise that Wembanyama was selected as the Defensive Player of the Year.

By the numbers, of all the teams that made the playoffs, the Spurs come into this Finals matchup ranked with the second best defensive rating (104.4), first in defensive field goal percentage (41.3%), and first in rebounds per game (47.3). No doubt the Knicks will be facing their toughest opponent yet.

Let’s review the offensive and defensive scouting report.

Of the many plays the Spurs run, one of their most popular is a double-drag set involving Wemby and one of the wings (in this case, Julian Champagnie). As you can see, several advantages are created. So much attention is paid to Wemby rolling into the paint that Champagnie gets a fairly open look from three — he just misses it.

But for argument’s sake, let’s just say the closeout from Chet Holmgren was better, Champagnie could swing the ball to Devin Vassel, who benefits from SGA being pulled into the paint by Wemby’s roll.

These types of plays present a “Pick Your Poison” conundrum for the defense. It’s my belief that because you have to at least tag Wemby when he rolls to the basket, it’s impossible not to give up some open looks from three; you just hope the right guys are the shooting them.

Currently, De’Aaron Fox is the only Spurs starter shooting below 35% from the three-point line (31.1%). Stephon Castle, who is currently shooting 36.3% from downtown, shot 33.3% from the three-point line during the regular season, making the former National Champion a potential regression target as well. Dylan Harper is also shooting 32.3% on catch-and-shoot three-point attempts.

With this same set, Yahoo Sports’ Nekias Duncan highlights the Spurs targeting Holmgren by bringing him up and away from the rim and into actions. This will be an approach the Spurs will try to employ with Karl-Anthony Towns.

Luckily for the Knicks Towns has been a completely different defender this postseason. According to NBAstats.com, during the regular season, Towns was a (-3.4) on court/off-court in regards to the team’s defensive rating. But during the postseason, that trend has flipped as Towns has been a (+2.5), showcasing his ability to stay in front of his man, play defense with his chest, and stay vertical when contesting opponents at the rim.

So much of the talk, as it relates to the Spurs, is about Wemby, and rightfully so, but Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle are two guards with great size and power. Being down Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, OKC’s Jared McCain and Alex Caruso were no match for Castle and Harper, as both players were able to drive and create space at will.

But the Knicks are well-positioned with players like OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart to cut off those drives and make life much more difficult for them. When it comes to matchups, I actually like OG to start out on Castle, Mikal will cover Fox, KAT on Wemby (please stay out of foul trouble), Josh Hart on Vassell, and Jalen Brunson will stick to Champagnie.

The Knicks have not faced a team that can hold their own on the boards like the Spurs this postseason. They have also not faced a rim protector like Wemby. On his way to becoming defensive player of the year Wemby tallied 197 total blocks (first in the NBA), was ranked first in contested shots per game (9.3), and held opponents to a league low 40.7% field goal percentage.

Part of the reason the Spurs were able to defeat the Thunder, besides OKC being down two important rotation players, was that they made Shai Gilgeous-Alexander primarily a jump shooter and cut off his driving lanes.

Here again, Shai has to pass it off twice, which eventually leads to a good look for Cason Wallace, but the Thunder’s offensive rhythm was disrupted. In baseball, pitchers utilize their fastball to establish the strike zone before throwing off-speed pitches or pitches with movement, the idea being that they want to create one advantage before trying to mix things up. The Spurs do the same thing with Shai’s drives, which set the table for collapsing the defense and lead to open threes.

During this series, it felt like the Spurs took away the Thunder’s fastball, and, at times, OKC couldn’t pivot.

On defense, the Spurs’ wings also do a really good job creating almost a soft zone, covering “gaps” when the opposing point guard starts his drive. The Knicks have been amazing at using off-ball screens and cutting to create confusion and movement within the defense. To the point, that this gap coverage has potential to be picked apart with ease.

My two keys to this series involving making Wemby work on defense and KAT having a monster series.

Former Spur, now Knick, Jeremy Sochan has told reporters that you have to make Wemby run and be physical with him. Essentially at his height, you want to involve him in as many actions to tire him out. Additionally, if I’m the Knicks and the Spurs stick Wemby on Hart, after every made basket or defensive rebound, I’m telling Josh to sprint down the court—there’s no way Wemby will be able to stick with him, which can open up transition opportunities.

If the Spurs start a smaller wing on KAT, he has to use his size to punish them in the post. I also want KAT to be really aggressive with his shooting. If the lanes are clogged, that makes driving for Jalen Brunson that much more difficult with a 7’4 center waiting at the rim.

Finally, I just can’t shake this feeling that the Knicks are just on a different level right now. There’s something special about them you can’t measure or quantify; it’s one of the joys of watching sports. Overall, I think this will be a tough series, but I just believe that the Knicks and their coach staff to have the answers they need to beat Wemby and the Spurs.

Knicks in six.