Tom Thibodeau & the Kenny Atkinson Dilemma

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Tom Thibodeau is only the fourth coach in Knicks history to have coached the team for five years or more since 1970, with the others being Jeff Van Gundy, Hubie Brown, and Red Holzman. In that time, Thibodeau has amassed a record of 218-169. He is 5th on the all-time list for Knicks coach wins and will likely pass Pat Riley for fourth by the end of this season. In short, Tom Thibodeau has been a very good coach for this franchise.

But that doesn’t mean that he is without flaws. Despite the success, many have been critical of his minutes distribution, his unwillingness to expand the rotation at times, and his schemes that have felt antiquated. This has come to a head recently with Mikal Bridges suggesting that bench players receive more playing time and a consensus nationally that the Knicks are a team with a second-round ceiling in the playoffs.

The complexity for Thibodeau comes when he looks up in the standings and sees Cleveland, a team that discarded a coach that was a great floor raiser but had a limited ceiling in favor of a coach that could take them to the next level. As Kenny Atkinson continues to take the Cavs to the next level, the Knicks may wonder whether it is time for them to find their Kenny Atkinson.

The Bickerstaff/Thibodeau Parallel

Both JB Bickerstaff and Tom Thibodeau entered precarious situations as the coaches of their teams. Thibodeau taking over a Knicks team that hadn’t won in a decade and Bickerstaff was trying to right the ship of a Cleveland team reeling after LeBron James left for Los Angeles, coupled with the failed John Beilein experiment.

What both the Cavs and Knicks needed were culture resetters, coaches that could come in and immediately impact the complacency and apathy that come with being a hopeless franchise. And in that sense, both were successful almost immediately.

Thibodeau led the Knicks to the fourth seed in the East in his first season. Bickerstaff, after a mediocre debut season, finished eighth in the conference but failed to qualify for the playoffs after two play-in losses. Both coaches successfully instilled a culture of accountability.

The way they did this was through defense. In the years that triggered their turnarounds, the Cavs were 7^th in defensive rating and the Knicks were 3^rd . They accomplished this with relentless wing defending anchored by big men who provide rim protection. They both also featured a mix of young players and non-notable veterans who were able to string together wins.

But as both fan bases have seen, the elevated regular season success has resulted in coming up short in the playoffs. The year after the Cavs finished eighth, they lost in five games in the first round to the Knicks. And last season, they escaped the first round in seven games against Orlando only to lose to Boston in five games. For the Knicks, it has been a similar roadblock. The breakout season ended in a first-round loss to the Hawks, followed by a season of missing the playoffs, and then two seasons in a row of losing in the second round to Miami and Indiana.

The Cavs saw the state of their team with talents like Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen and had to solve a problem. Either the players weren’t good enough to win, or the coach wasn’t good enough to maximize the talent that was brought in. They decided it was the coach and brought in Kenny Atkinson.

To his credit, Bickerstaff has walked into another rough situation in Detroit and turned them around into a playoff team, once again proving that he is a culture setter and floor raiser. But as Atkinson continues to have tremendous success, we must wonder if the Knicks front office is starting to wonder if they have hit their ceiling with Thibodeau.

Looking Up at Atkinson

Much of the criticism that has been levied on Tom Thibodeau this year has felt like a greatest hits album. There have been critiques of his minute distribution, not playing rookies enough, not expanding the rotation, implementing an outdated defensive scheme, and running an unimaginative offense. These are all critiques of Thibodeau teams of the past, and much of it feels like a man who is stuck in his ways and unwilling to adapt.

Admittedly, some of the criticism has been warranted while others can be attributed to a bit of fan overreaction. A lack of cohesion and fluidity should be excused a bit because two major components of this team (Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges) just arrived this season, and formulating chemistry takes some time.

On the other hand, Thibodeau’s defense has often looked out of touch with the modern NBA. In a game that prioritizes the three-point shot, the Knicks are allowing the second-best percentage from three this season (37.8%) trailing only the Sacramento Kings. The defense has improved quite a bit with the return of Mitchell Robinson, but schematically the team still gives up a lot of open looks from three, which will be a concern in the playoffs.

Looking at the Cavs this year, they have run away with the Eastern Conference and are ranked number one in offensive rating and tenth in defensive rating. They are in the top three of virtually all offensive metrics and the top half of the league in most defensive metrics. This is a huge leap forward from last year, where the team was 16^th in offensive rating, 12^th in net rating, and 13^th in effective field goal percentage. The change from Bickerstaff to Atkinson took a team from the outside looking in to an elite offensive juggernaut in a league that values offense over defense.

All of this has happened after the coach was changed, and a few new role players have been brought in (Ty Jerome and Max Strus). As the Knicks increasingly feel below the level of both Cleveland and Boston, it is fair to wonder if this version of the team coached by Thibodeau has a ceiling the same way that there was a Bickerstaff ceiling in Cleveland.

If the Cavs do indeed continue their momentum into the postseason and find themselves in the conference finals, it could be a signal for the Knicks that upgrading the coach may be the final piece to a championship puzzle. During an appearance on the Roommates Show, Knicks owner James Dolan said that trading for Towns was the last piece of the puzzle for this group. If Thibodeau is unable to figure out how to get past the second round with them, that could spell trouble for him.

There is a small possibility that Thibodeau is fired after this season, but it is safe to assume that another second-round exit (especially a non-competitive series) will make his seat very warm. And if Atkinson finds a way to guide this Cavs team to the promised land, then the seat will only get warmer. As we stand today, Thibodeau’s future may be both in his control and out of his control, which is a very precarious position to be in.

ICYMI