Tough Sledding: Knicks Pulse Check Part IV

In April of 2023, Sam Presti, President of Basketball Operations for the Oklahoma City Thunder, said that “the sky falls on every NBA team at least two times a year.”

And while Knicks fans hope that this most recent dip in form is the only adversity the team faces this season, the ripples from this tidal wave of mediocrity have pushed fans to question everything from the head coach to whether starters like Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges need to take their talents elsewhere.

Even the Knicks fans with rose-colored glasses have to acknowledge the real concerns related to the defense and the chemistry between two of the Knicks starters - Towns and Jalen Brunson. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks are 3-7, which included a four-game losing streak. At their worst, the Knicks have resorted to isolation-heavy hero-ball, high turnovers, and NYC subway-turnstile defense.

Taking stock in where the Knicks stand as it relates to the win-loss column and advanced stats - the orange and blue currently rank fourth in offensive rating (same as last check-in), 17th in defensive rating (down three spots), and eighth in net rating (down three spots). The Knicks are also second in the Eastern Conference - four games behind the first place Detroit Pistons.

So it’s clear the Knicks have been struggling since winning the NBA Cup. In the 15 games since the Knicks victory over the Spurs, they’re 7-8, which is actually a better record than the 2023 NBA Cup winners, the Los Angeles Lakers, who went 4-10 after their cup victory. This Knicks performance closely mirrors last season’s cup winners - the Milwaukee Bucks - who went 8-6 after winning the cup. The Knicks will of course be looking to avoid first-round playoff exists, which plagued both the Bucks and Lakers during their respective seasons.

Taking a deeper look at what is at the heart of this Knicks recent skid, it’s fairly obvious it’s the defense. To be fair, the Knicks were never a strong defensive team this season, but they’ve taken steps back from their usual middle-of-the-pack ranking. Mike Brown has been consistent in his diagnosis of the issue: lack of physicality. When the Knicks are engaged on the defensive end, they’re aggressive in getting into the body of the opposing ball-handler, leading with their chests, and not with their hands. Verticality has always been a point of emphasis for Brown as well. Over the course of this season, he’s complimented players like Ariel Hukporti and Kevin McCullar Jr. for jumping straight up when they contest drives.

This lack of attention to detail has showed up on the stat sheet as well. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks are 29th in defensive rating, 26th in opponent’s fast break points, and 23rd in opponent’s three-point field goals made. The return of Josh Hart will certainly help. After an away victory over the Portland Trail Blazers, Mike Brown made it a point to mention that the Knicks had 20 deflections, which he attributed in part to Hart’s activity. The Knicks have plenty of work to do if they want to become a top defensive side, but with Hart back and Landry Shamet on the mend, getting healthy will be the first step.

When a team is going through a rough path, usually at least one or more of the main players are in a slump. Unsurprisingly, losing seven of the last 10 games has coincided with some of the worst basketball played all season by both Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. After an embarrassing loss to the Pistons, KAT was asked about his adjustment to Mike Brown’s system. Although his exact words didn’t send off any major alarms bells, it was his body language that suggested a clear frustration with his new role.

I think the major change Mike Brown wants KAT to make is rolling more instead of popping in the pick-and-roll. After the Knicks beat the Hawks, Brown mentioned how the Knicks are a “different” team when KAT rolls because he can beat teams with his drives and his playmaking. That night Brown also highlighted that KAT had 18 free-throws. I think Brown wants KAT to embrace this role as a playmaker because it’s going to open up the offense more. KAT, historically, is more used to popping at the top of the key and shooting over the defense. This season, KAT’s three-point shots attempted per game are not down much from last season; however, he’s shooting 35.5% from the three-point line as opposed to 42% last season.

For Bridges, who had such a seamless transition into Mike Brown’s offense earlier this season, his struggles have been a bit more puzzling. It’s possible that the absence of a player like Hart - who does so much of the dirty work and is able to create second-chance possessions with his rebounding - has affected Bridges. But what also frustrates fans about Bridges is his lack of adjustment. When his shot is not falling, he doesn’t drive the ball, and avoids contact when he does. Of the 44 players that average at least 33 minutes per game, Bridges ranks 35th in drives per game (6.9).

After the Pistons loss, the Knicks beat the Los Angeles Clippers during a game where the orange and blue tallied 47 made field goals on 31 assists. Post game, KAT was asked about what changed, and he recounted that the coaching staff talked about the low assist numbers during the Pistons game and how much better the Knicks are when they move the ball. Some fans took this as a subtle shot at Jalen Brunson, who, over the last 10 games, has increased his average seconds per touch and average dribbles per touch.

The Knicks really only have two players who can really create off the dribble, and not just from attacking close-outs: Brunson, Jordan Clarkson, and sometimes Deuce McBride. Part of getting the ball to move more is attacking the paint and having shooters maintaining appropriate spacing on the perimeter. The question then becomes, do the Knicks have that ability on the roster, or do they need to make a trade?

Marc Stein has reported that the Knicks are shopping Guerschon Yabusele and Pacome Dadiet. Players like the New Orleans Pelicans’ Jose Alvarado and the Dallas Mavericks’ Naji Marshall have been rumored targets of the Knicks. Ideally, someone who has size and can break down the defense would fit the mold. The Chicago Bulls’ Ayo Dosunmo averages 7.9 drives per game, which is more than both Bridges and OG Anunoby. Dosunmo is also averaging over 14 points per game while shooting over 44% from the three-point line.

Over the next 10 games, the schedule isn’t really that difficult. A return match against the Phoenix Suns, and games versus the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers are probably the toughest of the group. But ultimately, the Knicks need to do some soul-searching. The book is out on them - hit the Knicks with physicality, and they fold.

Perhaps this is where we really see what the Knicks leadership is made of, and if Mike Brown can help his team return to their early-season form.