Do All Roads Lead to Giannis?

The running theme for the Eastern Conference this year is that it has never been more wide-open. Teams that previously made the Finals (the Pacers and Celtics) are hobbled by injuries to their stars, and there are a number of teams that are tanking. If there was ever a time for the Knicks in the Jalen Brunson era to make it back to the Finals, it is this year. The team has started the campaign well at 14-7, but there are concerns, as other teams in the East, like the Pistons and Heat, are looking to be more formidable than many have thought.

That environment is what makes the reports that Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo wants to be traded so interesting. The Knicks flirted with the idea of acquiring Giannis over the summer as his preferred destination, but talks broke down. And it seemed, in the moment, that it would be revisited in the offseason. That was before Giannis went on the offensive and purged his social media of all Bucks content—with the exception of posts about his NBA Finals and NBA Cup wins. With that action, Giannis has ignited the question once again: Should the Knicks make a deal to bring him to New York?

It’s an accepted reality in NBA trades that the team that gets the best player always wins the deal. In NBA economics, four quarters do not equal one dollar, so to speak. So when the best player in the trade also happens to be one of the three best players in the sport, it would be a crime for Leon Rose not to entertain the possibility of acquiring him.

Antetokounmpo has been on a tear this year. He is fourth in points per game, fifth in rebounds per game, sixth in offensive rebounds per game, and second in PER (player efficiency rating). He is a superstar at the peak of his powers, and one that doesn’t want to waste the tail end of his prime playing for a team that doesn’t have the roster to bring him a second title.

The Knicks present Giannis with the allure of fulfilling that desire, with a roster assembled to win this year. They were already one of the favorites to come out of the East, alongside Cleveland, in the preseason. The appeal for Antetokounmpo is obvious: the Knicks have a much better chance of immediate success than the Bucks as currently constructed.

The downside for the Knicks is that the asset haul that they can offer the Bucks is much weaker than what other teams like Oklahoma City and San Antonio possess. But what has remained clear is that Giannis will likely be able to choose the team he lands on, with all indications that the Bucks are willing to cater to his preferences. And because the Knicks had the first crack at making a deal this summer, they are the clear leaders to land the nine-time All-Star.

So what would it take to get him? The Bucks, who would be looking at a massive rebuild, are likely to covet draft picks. The problem for the Knicks is that they don’t have many of those. And because the Knicks are hovering under the second apron, deals become tricky. In terms of draft capital, the Knicks have Washington’s first-round pick in 2026—but it is protected 1-8, meaning that it will likely convert into two second-round picks instead. And because of the Stepien Rule, many of their future firsts before 2031 are untradeable because of all the draft capital sent to Brooklyn in the deal to acquire Mikal Bridges.

That means the only option would be to offer contracts and pick swaps to make the deal work. Multiple pick swaps, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Pacôme Dadiet would be an avenue. Another avenue would be to include Towns, OG Anunoby, and a selection of draft capital in return for Giannis and Kyle Kuzma. The appeal of having Giannis is tempting, and likely is one fans would be okay with. But we must also wonder how effective it could be.

Any Giannis deal is almost assuredly going to include Karl-Anthony Towns—whether he ends up as a Buck or diverted to a third team. Because of that, the calculus of a Giannis trade is filled with the differences between the two players. They are both elite big men, but possess vastly different skillsets for this Knicks team.

Towns is a floor stretcher. He is one of the best high-volume three-point shooting big men this league has ever seen. He is a physical, albeit reckless, driver of the basketball and has surprisingly good passing skills that he doesn’t get enough credit for. He is also maddeningly inconsistent at times and commits silly fouls that make you question his focus level and basketball IQ. Towns is the ultimate mystery box of a player, the rewards could be immense but the risks often cause trepidation.

If there is a notable con to maintaining a roster with Towns at the center of it, it’s defense. That is a problem that Giannis solves immediately. He has been selected to the All-Defense team five times and won the Defensive Player of the Year in 2020. He often dominates defensive metrics and is still a force on the inside. If the Knicks were to acquire him and pair him with Mitchell Robinson, it is likely that they would have one of the best interior defenses in the league.

While Giannis presents an instant no-brainer upgrade on defense, it is on offense where things get a little more complicated. Antetokounmpo is one of the fiercest downhill forces that the NBA has ever seen, he lives in the paint. But as we have seen in Mike Brown’s first year as Knicks coach, he has asked Towns to be able to read the defense and make quick decisions to move the ball.

Brown has also emphasized three point shooting, which would become more challenging when moving from Towns to Antetokounmpo, who is a career 28% shooter on limited volume. If the trade also sacrificed OG Anunoby, that shooting upside would be further diminished. Even if Kyle Kuzma was offered in return, the Knicks would be trading a player in the 88th percentile of corner three accuracy for one in the 42nd percentile.

Losing Anunoby defensively would be another detriment, likely placing more defensive pressure and responsibility on Mikal Bridges. It could be argued that much of that pressure is alleviated by Giannis on the inside, however. With a roster that features Giannis, multiple non-shooting big men, and a streaky Josh Hart, it’s fair to wonder how the team would be able to space the floor in the playoffs.

The flipside, of course, is that when you have a chance to get a top five player in the world, you get him in the building and figure the rest out later. And because the Knicks feel that their window of opportunity is right now, we have to believe that they will explore this option until the Bucks firmly close the door on it.

If the Knicks want to acquire Giannis, it has to be in the middle of this season. The recurring theme of this iteration of the franchise has been its championship aspirations right now. Given that's their modus operandi, the goal is to get a deal done sooner rather than later. And with Giannis’ cryptic signals and actions in the past few days, it appears that the player is trying to force the hand of his current team as well.

As for when the deal could happen, it stands to reason that the Knicks would prefer to make the deal well before the trade deadline, allowing for the most possible on-court time for Jalen Brunson and Giannis to develop chemistry. If the trade were to include Mikal Bridges instead of OG Anunoby, the trade would have to wait until February since Bridges recently signed an extension in August.

There is also the looming thought that midseason superstar trades rarely result in a title that same year. Two notable exceptions are when the Rockets traded for Clyde Drexler in 1995 and when the Pistons traded for Rasheed Wallace in 2004. Other examples offer us cautionary tales, such as James Harden to Philadelphia in 2022 and Dwight Howard to the Lakers in 2012.

If a trade is unable to be worked out this season, the negotiations become a bit more interesting in the offseason. Giannis will be entering a season with only one guaranteed year left before a player option, meaning any team that trades for him will need to be certainly they are not getting a rental. In that scenario, Giannis has tremendous leverage over Milwaukee. But at the same time, with extensions kicking in next year, the Knicks are going to be hard-capped at the second apron, making a Giannis deal even more challenging.

It is starting to feel that there is a certain inevitability nationally about Giannis becoming a Knick. But there are concerns about current roster fit and limited assets to even make the deal plausible, especially in the middle of the season. But the Knicks have a strong thirst to win a title. The way they handle these Giannis trade talks will tell us a lot about what they think about this current team’s ceiling. The ball is in Leon Rose’s court right now, and this moment is the ultimate test of his patience and confidence in his roster construction.

Should the Knicks pursue Giannis? Who would you trade? Give your take below.