Navigating Life Without Jalen Brunson

The Knicks starting lineup has been the healthiest starting unit in the NBA this season, registering the most games and minutes played in the league. Even as OG Anunoby missed six consecutive games with a foot sprain, and Karl-Anthony Towns has missed a few games throughout the season, there was always one thought in the back of our minds. As long as Jalen Brunson stays healthy, this team will always have a chance.

That thought has now become a troubling reality for the Knicks, as Brunson suffered a right ankle sprain in the loss against the Lakers. The injury is likely to sideline Brunson for at least a couple of weeks and has cast some doubt about the team’s outlook while he is out. This gloomy perspective is a further indication of why Brunson is so important and why it is equally essential that the team discovers itself in his absence.

Jalen Brunson is often called the engine of this Knicks team, and the numbers back that up. He is in the 85^th percentile in the league in usage (32.6%) and in the 86^th percentile in points per shot attempt (1.2). He is also in the top quarter of the league in effective field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage, and three-point percentage.

Beyond scoring and shooting, Brunson has also advanced his game this year as a passer. He is among the league leaders in load (97^th percentile) and box creation (98^th percentile), which tells us that he is making smart decisions with the basketball while also being asked to do more relative to other players in the NBA. 32.3% of the Knicks’ field goals this year have been assisted by Brunson, which is a career-high, as is his 7.4 assists per game.

Despite how impressive these numbers are, they pale in comparison to what he has been able to do during clutch situations this season. Whenever the Knicks find themselves in a tight game late, the solution is always the same this year: give the ball to JB and let him execute. As a result, Brunson is second in the league in total clutch points (145) and first in clutch points per game (6.0).

This strategy has also come with increased usage. In clutch situations, Brunson’s usage rate is the highest among players with 10+ clutch games played at 44.6%, a vast increase from his average usage of 29.0%. When it’s winning time and plays need to be made, no one but Brunson is tasked with taking the Knicks over the finish line. And he has done a great job of it, with the Knicks holding a 16-8 record in clutch game situations that he has been a part of.

That is what the Knicks are trying to replace. They are attempting to navigate these next few weeks without their leader and the nucleus of their offensive attack. They are enormous shoes to fill, but there are a few ways they can approach a potential solution.

In Brunson’s absence, Deuce McBride has stepped in as the starting point guard. This decision on its own is somewhat surprising in the context of this year’s team as McBride has only played 10% of his minutes at the point guard position. Thibodeau’s decision to insert McBride in this spot, as opposed to Cam Payne, shows that McBride’s defense and shot creation are valued at a premium and viewed as more critical to success.

In the very short three game sample size since Brunson went out, McBride has averaged 13 points, 2 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He has shot 42% from three in these games with a healthy seven attempts per game. These are encouraging numbers, but they also leave more opportunities for attempts from other players considering Brunson’s normal shot volume. The players that have attempted to fill this gap have been Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby.

The traditional counting stats for both players have seen upticks in the three games since Brunson went down. Bridges has seen an increase in scoring, averaging 23.3 points per game (up from his season average of 17.2 points per game). He has also seen an uptick in assists per game (up 2.1 per game), field goal percentage (up 13.5%), and three-point percentage (up 2.6%).

This season has seen Bridges’ usage rate dip back to his averages in Phoenix. His lack of consistent involvement in the offense has been heavily scrutinized by fans, with many questioning the point of acquiring Bridges from Brooklyn. But with this injury, there is an opportunity for Bridges to increase his playmaking potential and in turn carve out a more aggressive offensive role in time for the playoffs.

In 2022-23, after he was traded to Brooklyn, Bridges was in the 95^th percentile of usage in the NBA. Despite that increased volume, he was still in the 82^nd percentile of short midrange shooting percentage, 88^th percentile of long midrange shooting percentage, and the 64^th percentile in corner three shooting percentage. Even with the increased workload, he still found a way to be efficient with the shots he likes to take. A slight replication of this trend is what we should be hopeful for during Brunson’s absence.

For Anunoby, he has taken two more shots per game in Brunson’s absence. The key for him will be where he gets these shots. Throughout the year, he has lived at the three-point line where 44% of his attempts have come from.

While these are great shots when Brunson is spraying the ball after breaking down the defense, without his presence it would make more sense for OG to utilize his posting ability to seal defenders and get more attempts at the rim. Converting easy baskets while missing Brunson will be key, and those plays are near automatic when Anunoby gets position, so those should be a priority for the Knicks.

The larger test for the Knicks during these non-Brunson games is to prove that they can adapt and play winning basketball without their best player. Far too often this year, the team has descended into relying on Brunson’s heroics a little too much. This has made them predictable at times, and good opposing defenses have identified that, making scoring more difficult.

By being forced to survive games without Brunson, almost everyone on the Knicks will be forced to reckon with different roles, responsibilities, and situations that they have not had to deal with in extended stretches all season. From that perspective, it can be argued that the Brunson injury turns into a gauge of playoff preparedness.

For a team that has been successful yet at the same time frustrating, this final stretch of games without Brunson will be a moment of realization, an answer to the question of what this team can do when adversity starts to mount. If Brunson is back and fully healthy for the playoffs, this Knicks team will be better prepared for the challenges that lay ahead of them. But it must realize how they can be successful without their captain first.