Thibs, Minutes, Rotations: 2025 Lineup Notes Pt. 1

Ahead of tonight's rematch against the Thunder, let's dive into the Knicks lineup trends thus far.

Have you heard? Tom Thibodeau over-exerts his starters. It’s the talk of the town, and his dissenters have memorized the script: “He runs his players into the ground.” 

The Knicks have been one of the luckiest teams this season in terms of health, which has made it easy for Thibs to lean into the availability. Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby rank first, second, and third in total minutes. The Knicks starting lineup ranks first with the most minutes (632, leading the Wolves by over 200). They also have the top five four-man units, the top seven three-man units, and the top eight tandems.

On the other hand, it’s a bad look seeing Karl-Anthony Towns limp and labor with a bad knee during unimportant minutes (on Derrick Rose Night of all nights). Thibs has difficulty pulling the plug as is, and the depth-clearing blockbuster trades this summer have made those nightly decisions even less likely.

Let’s dig deeper into how the Knicks have fared thus far with their lineups.

WIP Bench

While the starting five has built strong continuity quicker than expected, the Knicks’ next two most common lineups include Jericho Sims, now a situational platoon. The Payne/Deuce/Mikal/Hart/KAT group ranks fourth with just 62 total minutes, and we haven’t seen it in the last five games due to McBride’s injury.

In previous years, the Knicks have relied on guys like Deuce, Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Alec Burks, Obi Toppin, and Taj Gibson to spark comebacks and shift momentum. Just last season, the IQ/Donte/RJ/Hart/I-Hart lineup had a +8.2 net rating in 116 minutes before the OG Anunoby trade. That unit featured three playoff starters.

With the returns of Precious Achiuwa and Landry Shamet, Thibs is still looking for the best lineup combos. But the trade deadline lurks in the distance, and injuries to Deuce and Mitchell Robinson continue to stunt the evaluation process.

The New IQ

Ask any Knicks fan you know if they can guess the player with the best plus/minus in franchise history. Bet them $100 they won’t get it right in five tries. It’s Immanuel Quickley (+885), who ironically still didn’t get enough playing time.

The same day Quick was traded, Deuce McBride signed a three-year extension and filled the vacant role. In his first full season as a sixth man, Deuce appears in five of the Knicks’ eight best tandems by net rating. His recent absence has been glaring on both ends, and his return will likely provide more rest for Brunson and Wingstop.

Fifth Man Debate

  • JB/Deuce/Hart/OG/KAT: +37.1 net rating (47 minutes)

  • JB/Deuce/Mikal/Hart/HAT: +21.9 net rating (32 minutes)

  • JB/Mikal/OG/Precious/KAT: +15.0 net rating (17 minutes)

  • JB/Deuce/Mikal/OG/KAT: +11.6 net rating (31 minutes)

  • JB/Mikal/Hart/OG/KAT: +5.5 net rating (632 minutes)

It’s a small sample size, but the Knicks can create fun combinations with their top seven players. I won’t advocate for a starting lineup change, but lineup optimization will be key to raising the team’s ceiling. It’s worth watching how Thibs fills in the gaps between the start and end of halves.

No Brunson, No Problem

Last season, the Knicks had a 108.69 offensive rating with Brunson off the floor (per PBP Stats) compared to a 122.94 offensive rating with him on. This year? He’s not even receiving the most MVP attention on his team, and the stats reflect that (121.57 on, 118.63 off).

That Payne/Deuce/Mikal/Hart/KAT lineup has a +21.4 net rating in 62 minutes. I’d be wary of its effectiveness now, given Cam Payne’s recent funk, but the front office has put together some pieces that can save Brunson’s hero ball play for emergencies.

Even on Wednesday, the Knicks overcame a 9 for 31 brick fest by Brunson and Mikal to beat the Raptors. They have enough talent to win games while their backcourt works through its shooting struggles.

Other Notables

  • Best Duo (80+ mins): OG & Deuce (+15.6) (120.8 off., 104.8 def.). Stellar.

  • Worst Duo (80+ mins): Payne & Precious (-12.1) (107.1 off., 119.1 def.). Bad.

  • Best Trio (45+ mins): KAT, Hart & Precious (+28.0, with a 63.8 rebounding %).

  • Worst Trio (45+ mins): Payne, Precious & Deuce (-20.0) (99.1 off.,119.0 def.).

  • Best 2-piece wing combo without the third: Mikal & OG with no Hart (+16.37)

  • The Lock Squad: JB/Deuce/Mikal/OG/Sims (94.3 defensive rating) (65 mins)

  • Stop Playing Them: JB/Mikal/Hart/OG/Precious (-7.4 net rating) (50 mins). These days, it’s sometimes the first sub made in the first and third quarters.

Solutions to the Minutes “Problem”?

The problem hasn’t been an issue given the starters’ ability to stay healthy, but the “real” season begins in the spring, hence fans’ concerns that some guys won’t make it that far. But what’s the solution?

Play the rookies? You could point to the cluelessness in garbage time as a reason not to, as at least one of them features in eight of the Knicks’ ten worst three-man units. But Tyler Kolek with Brides and Payne is +20.0. Pacome Dadiet is +27.4 with KAT and Payne. All three have shown flashes of solid play alongside the Knicks’ best players. How risky would it be to insert them into a second quarter here and there?

Call up TJ Warren or Chuma Okeke? The Knicks are just $400,000 below their hard cap. If that remains true the rest of the way, they won’t be able to afford a call-up until March.

Make a trade? It’s not that easy, as we’ve discussed before.

We’ll check back in later ahead of the 2025 playoffs when the roster is set for battle.

ASG Voting Worth Triple Today!

Karl-Anthony Towns is currently third in East frontcourt voting, while Jalen Brunson is fourth amongst East guards. Help make them both All-Star starters!

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